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6 Predictions for the Future of Artificial Intelligence
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Artificial Intelligence is no longer a futuristic technology. It is not an attention-grabbing fiction infused tool that a mobile game development company considers important. It is already there allowing us to reap advantages like more precise predictions, the more adaptive behaviour of machines, context-aware machine reactions to voice commands of human, etc. Machines are continuing to imitate human intelligence and unleashing automated as well as responsive behaviour to human situations that were unpredictable in the past.

In the pace Artificial Intelligence is paving the way for better comfort, ease of use and multifaceted advantages for everyday life, soon we can see AI make a lot of things happen that were previously unthinkable. The latest AI research projects underway and the predictions about the roles of AI in future to come upholds a future which is equally bright and shrouded with anticipation.

Here we are going to explain six predictions about future of AI that seem credible.

1. Robots for disaster management

AI, which refers to the intelligence of machines, will make machines more responsive and aware of human contexts. If one facet of modern technology can be predicted to reap highest advantages of this new machine intelligence, it is nothing but the robotics. Robots powered by Artificial Intelligence will be able to do a lot of things that were previously ascribed to only humans. For example, for delicate and challenging roles like taking care of kids or elders robotscan be depended upon.

AI-powered robots will be able to tackle dangerous situations better than human beings. Robots will play a more proactive role in maintaining city traffic and managing disasters. For example, disasters like earthquakes and its after effects for certain areas can be envisaged and rightly predicted through modern analytics and accordingly as and when such disasters occur, AI-driven rescue apps can send humanitarian and precautionary messages to the residents. With the flood water crossing maximum limit, data-driven predictive analytics coupled up with AI can guide humanitarian aid to reach faster to the affected areas and its residents.

2. AI will be subject to misuse as well

In the way Artificial Intelligence is continuing to penetrate every area of our living and activities, machines and digital interfaces in the future will enjoy greater autonomy and power than ever before. This, in turn, can pave the way for vulnerabilities concerning security and misuse as well. By acquiring human-like cognitive abilities over many years machines and digital interfaces can pose a grave threat to human beings as well.

Though as of now machines behaving in an egoistic and biased manner just like the humans is unthinkable and mostly remained a phenomenon common to the fantasy world of science fiction, it can soon go to be a reality. Machines acquiring such psychological attributes of human can become dangerous to human autonomy and overall existence.

Artificial Intelligence of machines having full autonomy over user data can threaten privacy as such machine tools can process and utilise user data for further business purposes. AI generated customer interactions can prove to be a goldmine for the users, but such open and unrestricted access to machines to user data can have serious consequences on privacy.

3. Fully autonomous cars having the edge of AI

An Autonomous or driverless car is already a reality now, and just within a couple of years, we can expect them to hit the road as a regular vehicle. But as of now as most test drives confirmed driverless cars are only equipped to deal with road situations and driver’s safety, and they lack delicate-decision making power and ability to respond to multifarious situations like heavy rain, fog, snow, windstorms, etc. On a bigger scale, human intelligence is still irreplaceable for driving cars in general. The ever-increasing prowess of AI is giving us hope that in the time to come AI-powered driverless cars will have all the attributes of human drivers behind the wheel.

4. The threat of unpredictable superhuman abilities

We all have read and watched numerous science fiction where intelligent robots having superhuman abilities not just behave like humans but actually gets into the role of saviors and destructors of human beings. Well, that is now a possibility looming large in front of us. Many industry stalwarts and global tech thinkers, as well as scientists including Stephen Hawking, Elon Musk and Bill Gates, have expressed concerns over the role of AI in shaping superhuman intelligence that in the time to come can dominate human actions and behavior. The question is, whether this can be translated as a grim or bright future for the humans.

As of now, most predictions and concerns over the dominant role of AI have their source in one thing, and that is the sheer unpredictability of the AI-powered machines. AI is still in its nascent state when considered against the huge possibilities it offers for the future human beings. We can only say machines are going to have more similarities to human analytical abilities but how far machines can imitate human intelligence and to what extent it can be more intelligent than humans we do not know.

5. Cyborg technology

The way human brain functions in coordination with the millions of nerves spread all over our body is unique. This mind-body continuum is something that remained out of reach for makers of robots and researchers who for years are trying to shape machines capable of behaving and interacting humanely. But science fiction writers already came up with the concept of cyborgs, the robots loaded with human brain cells and neurons. These cyborgs have been the closest avatars of human beings with many things similar to humans.

If cyborgs have been a fictional possibility, latest stem cell research already made artificial limb production a possibility. In the time to come, AI coupled up with modern stem cell research can bring us similar nervous and neurological capabilities. Though cyborgs still seem to be a distant reality, the progress in AI technology and stem cell research together are making it a brighter possibility in the time to come.

6. Smart computers to solve climate change problem

Computers are now not only getting smarter with analytical abilities, but they can also answer questions with the awareness of user context. This enhanced ability which is getting better with every passing day ultimately can deliver insights about most complex and unpredictable fields of knowledge like the climate.

Having the ability to analyse unlimited data volume besides being able to analyse real-time situations, smart computers now can predict climate change and twists and turns of the environment more precisely. AI can work actively to prevent environmental catastrophe and can make humans beware of any impending disasters that can threaten life and living beings.

Finally, machines having acquired more human-like intelligence can become buddies of future humans. Already devices are our closest companions for greater part of the day. In the years to come, they will only acquire more humanely role and demeanour.

Future Section
Information Technology and Development: Beyond “”Either/Or””
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After years of drift and inattention to the problems of global development, during the past half decade the international community has dramatically increased its focus on strategies to help the people of the world’s poorest countries share in the benefits of globalization and escape the traps of poverty, disease, and lack of education. The decision of the world’s leaders at the United Nations Millennium Summit in September 2000 to adopt eight specific development goals provided an agreed political benchmark for measuring progress. Left open, however, were crucial issues about how best to achieve those goals.

A key unanswered question is the potential contribution that information and communication technology (ICT) can make to this effort. The question is not new. In 1984 the Commission for Worldwide Telecommunication Development (the Maitland Commission) issued an influential report, The Missing Link, citing the lack of telephone infrastructure in developing countries as a barrier to economic growth. The advent of the global information technology revolution in the 1990s set off a heated, sometimes acrimonious debate among development specialists and policymakers about the place of ICT in development.

On the one hand are those who see wiring the global South as a way to transcend decades of painful economic development and catapult even the poorest countries into the information age. As United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan observed in his Millennium Report, “New technology offers an unprecedented chance for developing countries to ‘leapfrog’ earlier stages of development. Everything must be done to maximize their peoples’ access to new information networks.” Proponents of this view not only stress the potential benefits of ICT but also argue that in an increasingly globalized economy, countries that fail to “get connected” will fall further and further behind.

At the opposite end are those who assert that “you can’t eat computers.” In the words of Microsoft’s Bill Gates, “Let’s be serious. Do people have a clear view of what it means to live on $1 a day? . . . There are things those people need at that level other than technology. . . . About 99 percent of the benefits of having [a PC] come when you’ve provided reasonable health and literacy to the person who’s going to sit down and use it.” Investing in ICT for poor countries, they argue, draws precious resources away from more urgent development needs. The lack of critical infrastructure, such as adequate energy grids, and of education keeps citizens of poorer countries from tapping ICT’s potential.

Waims Updates
Eight Trends Driving the Future of Information Technology
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he emerging world of information technology is one in which data is king, social platforms evolve as a new source of business intelligence, and cloud computing finally delivers on IT’s role as a driver of business growth, according to a new report from Accenture (NYSE: ACN).

The Accenture Technology Vision 2011 identifies eight emerging trends that challenge long-held assumptions about IT and are poised to reshape the business landscape. The report also offers “action steps” that high performing businesses and governments can take to prepare for the new world of computing.

Waims Updates
PM Narendra Modi, UN chief Antonio Guterres discuss issues related to global peace
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New Delhi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi Tuesday met United Nations General Secretary Antonio Guterres and discussed a wide range of issues pertaining to global peace and prosperity. Guterres arrived here Monday on his maiden visit to India as the head of the world body that coincided with the commencement of events marking the 150th birth anniversary of Mahatma Gandhi.

“Had a wonderful meeting with Secretary-General of the @UN, Mr. @antonioguterres. We discussed a wide range of issues pertaining to global peace and prosperity,” Modi tweeted. “We are extremely grateful to him for coming to India for the Mahatma Gandhi International Sanitation Convention,” he said.

Waims Updates
Sustainable Development Goals
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the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, adopted by all United Nations Member States in 2015, provides a shared blueprint for peace and prosperity for people and the planet, now and into the future. At its heart are the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which are an urgent call for action by all countries – developed and developing – in a global partnership. They recognize that ending poverty and other deprivations must go hand-in-hand with strategies that improve health and education, reduce inequality, and spur economic growth – all while tackling climate change and working to preserve our oceans and forests.

The SDGs build on decades of work by countries and the UN, including the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs

Today, the Division for Sustainable Development Goals (DSDG) in the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) provides substantive support and capacity-building for the SDGs and their related thematic issues, including water, energy, climate, oceans, urbanization, transport, science and technology, the Global Sustainable Development Report (GSDR), partnerships and Small Island Developing States. DSDG plays a key role in the evaluation of UN systemwide implementation of the 2030 Agenda and on advocacy and outreach activities relating to the SDGs. In order to make the 2030 Agenda a reality, broad ownership of the SDGs must translate into a strong commitment by all stakeholders to implement the global goals. DSDG aims to help facilitate this engagement.

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Science in the Future of India
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India has voted for Science. In May, half a billion people cast their ballots, and they decisively favored spurring the development of the world’s second most populous nation. The reelected Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and his new coalition government have made a commitment to reduce poverty and disease, create employment, and stimulate rural and industrial development. Attaining these goals will require substantial new investments in science and technology (S&T) plus much greater investments in human capital.

Since achieving freedom in 1947, India has established many institutions devoted to science and higher education. Most notably, five Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs) were established between 1951 and 1963, and by 2008 there were 13 IITs: national degree-granting institutions devoted to the training of high-quality engineers and scientists. Despite the gap in infrastructure between advanced countries and India, there have been critical successes in areas such as space, atomic energy, and agriculture. In fundamental research too, India has made progress. Because of the innumerable demands on the economy, however, the higher-education sector has not received adequate support. Part of the reason for the decline in India’s university science education system in the past decades has been the preferential funding for R&D activities in national research laboratories.

Prime Minister Singh has recently announced an increase in government investment in S&T from the present 1% of gross domestic product (GDP) to 2% of GDP over the next year or two, an increase of unprecedented magnitude. The contribution of industry has also increased significantly in the past few years, now amounting to approximately 20% of the nation’s total investment in science R&D. And the government has begun appropriate administrative reforms as well. For example, two new government departments dealing with Earth system science and health research have been created. In addition, the Indian parliament has approved creating a National Science and Engineering Research Board, an entity somewhat similar to the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF), that will be responsible for funding scientific research. It will provide competitive grants and establish new facilities in priority areas. Like NSF, the board will also produce annual “science indicators”: detailed analyses for measuring progress in S&T from year to year.

CREDIT: JERRY COOKE/CORBIS

This is all good news. But the human resources essential for supporting an expanded S&T agenda are lacking. Young graduates today are readily attracted to professions other than those related to science and engineering; thus, banking, business, and information technology have become immensely popular. India must now focus on creating a large body of outstanding young people interested in taking up professions in science and engineering. To improve the quality of the university education system, new support is being provided. For example, five new Indian Institutes of Science Education and Research have been established in the past 3 years. Admitting undergraduates on the basis of competitive examinations (as do the IITs), these new national institutes will encourage bright young students to pursue science as a career, at both the undergraduate and Ph.D. levels. In addition, to meet the demand for top-class engineering graduates nationally and internationally, the country will increase the total number of IITs to 15.

Sixty percent of the Indian population is below the age of 25, and most reside in villages. This untapped talent represents a great potential asset. Around 600,000 scholarships are now available each year for talented school students from these areas, with an emphasis on those living in poverty. One million science awards are being given to students to promote interest in science, and 10,000 scholarships are available to support students who wish to pursue education beyond high school. In addition, the new government has already initiated important structural reforms in the education sector.

India’s citizens have risen to the occasion with their vote. The tasks and challenges for the new government are clear but daunting: It must now satisfy the aspirations of a billion people.

Future Section
Narendra Modi among top 10 most powerful people in the world: Forbes
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Mr. Modi ranks 9th on the Forbes 2018 list of 75 of “The World’s Most Powerful People”

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been ranked among the top 10 most powerful people in the world by Forbes in a list that has been topped for the first time ever by Chinese President Xi Jinping, who dethroned Russian President Vladimir Putin as the most influential person on the planet.

Mr. Modi ranks 9th on the Forbes 2018 list of 75 of ‘The World’s Most Powerful People‘ who make the world turn.

“There are nearly 7.5 billion humans on planet Earth, but these 75 men and women make the world turn. Forbes’ annual ranking of The World’s Most Powerful People identifies one person out of every 100 million whose actions mean the most,” Forbes said.

Mr. Modi, 67, is ahead of Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg (ranked 13), United Kingdom Prime Minister Theresa May (14), Chinese Premier Li Keqiang (15) and Apple CEO Tim Cook (24).

Reliance Industries Chairman Mukesh Ambani, with a net worth of 41.2 billion dollars, is the only other Indian on the power list, ranking 32nd. Microsoft’s India-born CEO Satya Nadella is on the 40th spot.

Forbes said Mr. Modi “remains hugely popular” in the second most populous country on earth. It cited Mr. Modi government’s November 2016 decision to eliminate India’s two largest banknotes in a bid to reduce money laundering and corruption.

“Mr. Modi has raised his profile as a global leader in recent years during official visits with U.S. President Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. He has also emerged as a key figure in the international effort to tackle climate change, as warming affects millions of his country’s rural citizens,” Forbes said.

On Ambani, Forbes said the billionaire industrialist’s Reliance sparked a price war in India’s hyper-competitive telecom market with the launch of 4G phone service Jio in 2016.

“Jio has signed on 160 million customers by offering free domestic voice calls, dirt-cheap data services and virtually free smartphones,” Forbes said.

After being named the most powerful person in the world for four consecutive years, Mr. Putin drops to the second spot, dethroned by Mr. Xi, who seizes the top spot for the first time ever after China’s congress amended its constitution in March, broadening his influence and eliminating term limits.

Forbes said the Chinese leader “enjoys a cult of personality” not seen since Chairman Mao Zedong, China’s founding father.

Mr. Putin has ruled Russia since May of 2000, and this year he was re-elected to a fourth term with nearly 77% of the vote. That’s the largest margin of victory for any candidate for the office since the fall of the Soviet Union, Forbes said.

“This year’s list highlights the consolidation of power in the hands of an elite few,” Forbes said.

Rounding up the top five on the list are Mr. Trump on the third spot, followed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel (4) and Amazon chief Jeff Bezos (5).

On Mr. Trump, Forbes said he has seen limited success pushing his agenda through a Congress controlled by his own party, is under investigation by multiple law enforcement agencies, and can’t shake off scandals arising from his personal and business life — but he’s still Commander in Chief of the world’s greatest economic and military power.

There are 17 new names on the list this year, including Mohammed Bin Salman Al Saud (8), the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia. His father remains king, but he has consolidated power beyond any doubt and taken control of the country, Forbes said.

Other new members include U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell (11), Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods (34), President of South Korea Moon Jae-in (54) and Special Counsel for the U.S. Department of Justice Robert Mueller (72).

On Mr. Nadella, Forbes said the Microsoft CEO has steered the company away from a failing mobile strategy and focused on other segments, including cloud computing and augmented reality.

“Since taking over as a CEO, Microsoft’s stock has increased by more than 150%,” it said.

The list also includes Pope Francis (6), Cofounder of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Bill Gates (7), French President Emmanuel Macron (12), Alibaba Chief Jack Ma (21), CEO and Chairman of Tesla Elon Musk (25), UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres (31), North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (36), Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (57), Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad (62), Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte (69) and Islamic State’s self-proclaimed caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi (73).

In compiling the list, Forbes said it considered hundreds of candidates from various walks of life all around the globe, and measured their power along four dimensions of whether the person has power over lots of people, financial resources controlled by each person, whether the candidate is powerful in multiple spheres and that the candidates actively used their power.

Waims Updates
The future of Indian business education
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AS WELL as being the world’s second-most populous country, India is the world’s largest provider of management education. But that scale belies problems. A number of business schools offer substandard education, as Which MBA? has previously investigated, and smaller institutions struggle to stay afloat. A quarter of business schools in India take in fewer than 60 candidates in each annual cohort, a class size that AIMA, the All-India Management Association, a national management-education industry body, calls “abysmally low”.

Whether in a well-attended programme or not, the employment prospects for Indian business students have also dropped, according to AIMA. The cost of courses has increased—even in the lowest-quality schools—while the salary graduates can expect to earn is falling. “There a lot of people graduating from business schools who don’t get jobs in metro cities or big corporations,” says Rajan Saxena, the vice chancellor of the Narsee Monjee Institute of Management Studies, a private university in Mumbai, and chairman of the board of studies at AIMA. This is partly down to strong competition for relatively few positions, but also a disconnect between educational and employer requirements.

Such problems have the potential to hold back a country that will need ever-more good-quality managers. So as 2015 turned into 2016, AIMA published a strategy paper, seven months in the making, from a committee tasked with finding a way to improve management education in the country. The goal is bold: “By 2025 [the] Indian management education system should clearly emerge as the second best in the world, second only to that of [the] USA.”

AIMA suggests tearing down pillars that have propped up business education in India for years. Standardised curriculums have been commonplace, says Dr Saxena. However, there is a vast gap between India’s best business schools (Ahmedabad’s Indian Institute of Management (IIM-A) tops The Economist’s global ranking of business schools’ when it comes to opening new career opportunities) and its more mundane colleges. Yet they both teach the same theory and techniques. That is wrong-headed. An MBA graduating from a business school in Kapurthala (population: 99,000) is much less likely to reach the board of a multinational firm than one coming out of a management institute in Mumbai (population: 12m). The skills needed to handle a smaller company—in Indian heavy industry, for example—are different to global corporations.

Entrepreneurship would be better suited to smaller schools, Dr Saxena reasons, and would change India for the better. Some schools offer courses on bootstrapping businesses, but it should become a core part of the education system. Integration with industry would help target curriculums to suit the needs of employers, too. Differentiation is essential: the task force recommends attaching boosters to the best 150 business schools to compete on a global market by improving faculty and facilities, and repositioning the remaining 4,600 or so schools better to serve businesses on a national or regional level.

AIMA’s claim that India’s business schools can rival those in America within a decade is probably overly ambitious. But it should, at least, be possible to emerge as a hub for global management education. For the world’s largest business-school market, that is the least that should be expected.

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The odd ways that weather can unfold in a warming world
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This is the third in a 10-part series about the ongoing global impacts of climate change. These stories will look at the current effects of a changing planet, what the emerging science suggests is behind those changes and what we all can do to adapt to them.

Hurricane Harvey slammed into Houston, Texas, on August 25, 2017. Normally, hurricanes keep moving. Their high winds and torrential rains tend to last for only a brief time. But Harvey just sat over the city. For days. And it dumped a lot of rain. Really, a lot. By the time the storm had moved on, on August 29, it had drowned Houston with a whopping 164 centimeters (64.6 inches) of water, according to one rain gauge. That’s a record rainfall from one storm in one place in the continental United States. In fact, Harvey dumped so much rain that the National Weather Service had to add new colors to their rainfall maps of the event.

Hurricane Harvey brought a lot of rain to Texas. In this series of images, the storm makes landfall. Warmer colors indicate more precipitation.
OSPO/NOAA

Rising waters inundated more than 300,000 homes. That drove around 40,000 residents to take refuge in shelters across Texas and Louisiana. And of the some 100 people who died during the storm, more than 65 perished from flooding. Including damage from strong winds, researchers estimate that the storm caused more than $125 billion in damage. That tally makes Harvey the second-costliest hurricane to hit the U.S. mainland.

Hurricanes are a normal part of summertime weather. Since 1966, when satellites began daily monitoring of the North Atlantic Ocean, there have been an average of six hurricanes — and never less than two — per year. But more and more studies are revealing that human-caused climate change is influencing the size and fury of these storms.

And heavier rains and stronger storms are not the only ways in which a warming world is making our weather weirder. Higher temperatures can trigger droughts. Heat waves become more likely, and droughts can make them even worse. There can be changes to both global and local weather patterns. And the effects won’t always be what’s expected. In one truly odd twist, the continuing loss of summertime sea ice in the Arctic Ocean — one big result of a warming world — could make Siberian winters colder. What could be wackier than that?

Current Story
Is climate change fanning megafires?
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The biggest fire in California history ignited shortly after noon on July 27, 2018, and burned until mid-September. Called the Mendocino Complex Fire, its twin infernos started at the same time. They also burned close to one another and quickly blazed across forested lands. Together, they charred more than 1,800 square kilometers (700 square miles) — an area nearly half the size of the state of Rhode Island. Ninety crews of firefighters worked to contain it. They used hundreds of fire engines, 20 helicopters, 76 bulldozers and other tools. One firefighter died and four were injured. More than 150 homes burned, and smoke from the fire spread through the sky to nearby states.

Six of the state’s worst fires blazed in 2017 and 2018. A wildfire that burned through Napa Valley in October 2017 was particularly bad. Before it ignited, people who lived in the area described incredible winds that could knock a person over. Once the fire started, witnesses saw fires jump across roads, rip through vast fields of grapes and hop over hills. During more than three weeks, the fire claimed 22 lives, destroyed more than 5,000 structures and burned more than 146 square kilometers (56 square miles). That’s an area as big as one-and-a-half Disney Worlds. By year end, 2017 became California’s worst wildfire year on record.

Many areas across the world have seen a rise in extreme fires in recent years. Those include western U.S. states and southern Europe. They also include places you might not expect.

For example, wildfires used to be uncommon on Alaska’s North Slope. This region borders the Arctic Ocean and is home to the largest U.S. oil field. Now, however, fires are igniting there more frequently. The same is true in other Arctic regions. In July, for instance, people had to evacuate cities in northern Sweden as wildfires swept through them.

Some reasons for the rise in destructive fires are clear. People have been building homes on the edge of forests that face a high risk of fire. Periods of heavy rainfall can also spur a massive growth in vegetation. If that same area later experiences a drought — and California has suffered from many droughts in recent years — that new vegetation may dry out and become tinder that burns easily.

“The Napa Valley fires were a good example of this,” said Timothy Brown. He spoke during an online press briefing in August 2018. (It had been organized by a science communication project called SciLine.) During the briefing, experts talked about climate and weather. “Extreme precipitation in the winter and spring allowed for extensive [vegetation] growth,” he noted. “Then, when that dried later in the fall, it became very flammable and susceptible to ignition.” Brown is a climate scientist at the Desert Research Institute in Reno, Nev.

The signal of climate change

Has climate change made wildfires worse and megafires more likely? That’s what Brown and other climate scientists want to know. More importantly, they worry that more intense fires could become the new normal.

Studies have long predicted that warmer temperatures, due to climate change, make droughts and heat waves more likely. Many areas hit by recent fires had suffered through extreme droughts and heat waves.

But connecting individual fires to climate change is complicated. That’s partly because fire is complicated. Blaming climate change for any single fire is too simple. It ignores the natural conditions that make fire possible. But hotter days and warmer nights, caused by changes in the climate, do likely boost the risk of fire.

Scientists are still trying to agree on what makes a blaze ignite and spread. A wildfire has three main ingredients. First, it needs a spark. This can come from lightning or a downed power line. It can also come from negligent or malicious people who set fires by accident or on purpose. Brown points out that people start four out of every five wildfires. Second, a fire needs fuel to burn. This can be the trees in the forest or the dead “litter” — leaves, twigs and grass — on or near the forest floor. Finally, a fire needs weather conditions, like wind and no rain, to help it spread.

Many studies predict that climate change will boost the number of droughts and heat waves. Fire-ravaged areas, including California and Sweden, have had extreme droughts and extreme heat in recent years. Some scientists point to these weather events as proof that climate change makes wildfires worse.

But it’s even more complicated than that, says Janice Coen.

Fires can make their own weather

Coen is a meteorologist at UCAR. That’s the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. Testing hypotheses about fire is difficult, she explains. After all, scientists can’t go out and start a megafire. But she can make a computer model to test various ideas about the conditions that play a role in them. And that is exactly what Coen and her team did.

California’s 2014 King Fire burned for 27 days. During that time, it destroyed 12 homes. It was started by a man who recorded a selfie of himself right afterward. (He’s now in jail.) Coen wanted to know why the blaze raced so quickly through a forest canyon. To find out, she recreated the fire with a computer program. It used math to study how air particles move. It included data about temperature, humidity, air pressure and wind speeds. Those measurements had been collected by satellites, weather stations and special planes with onboard sensors.

a sattelite image showing smoke from the King Fire in September 2014
Smoke from the King Fire can be seen in this September 17, 2014 satellite image of the border between California and Nevada.
NASA/Wikimedia Commons

These data helped her team explore why the King fire behaved as it did. Laws of physics “tell us what the answer ought to be,” she explains. Those answers can then help scientists predict how future fires will behave.

Some ecologists said the King fire burned so fast and so intensely because it had so much fuel. No fires had burned in that area for years. As a result, leaves and other plant debris had built up on the forest floor. Other researchers blamed the drought. But Coen found yet another culprit: the atmosphere. She reported her findings in the May Ecological Applications.

As a fire burns, it releases heat and water vapor, a gas. As that hot air rises, cooler air is drawn in at the bottom. This process creates a column of rising air. It also creates wind. In the case of the King Fire, those local winds drove the fire into new vegetation — more fuel, Coen’s team reported. As the fire grew, it created more wind, which made the fire more intense. That phenomenon, combined with the shape of the canyon, led to the fire’s rapid spread.

“Weather directs the fire,” she says. “The fire, in turn, can change the weather.” When she ran the simulated fire without drought conditions, the blaze behaved almost the same way. That suggests the long drought and heat wave had not worsened the fire. Instead, the canyon’s shape and local weather conditions had boosted its intensity.

The terrible fires that have ravaged California in 2018 arose from a complex mix of ingredients. These included the Santa Ana winds, which blow hot and dry through the state every fall. They also included a lack of the rain that usually develops in the cooler months. Less rain may be due to a La Niña event (a natural phenomenon that affects weather patterns worldwide). Some of those ingredients may have been worsened by climate change. But as Coen’s study points out, finding some clear fingerprint of climate change in wildfires is not easy.